Retail Loss Prevention Expertise and Research

Enabling the Retail Sector to Sell More and Lose Less

Can Growing Online Grocery Sales Reduce Store Shrink?

Our working group meeting focused in on the impact of online grocery operations on the store shrink performance. The key finding was that the relationship between online sales and shrink (inventory loss due to theft, spoilage, or operational errors) varied significantly depending on the store format, the online grocery operational model, and the nature of online fulfilment. Here were five takeaways from the meeting discussion. 1. Shrink Performance Varies by Store Format The analysis found that large-format stores, particularly those with a high proportion of first-party online sales (where the retailer both picks and delivers orders), experienced a significant reduction in shrinkage. For every 10% participation rate, unknown loss reduced by circa 8 basis points. This improvement is attributed to: Increased staff presence on the shop floor due to picking activities, leading to better monitoring and stock control. More structured picking routines that reduce inventory mismanagement. Enhanced availability processes that minimize stockouts and discrepancies. In contrast, convenience stores that rely on third-party delivery services, such as Deliveroo or Uber Eats, exhibited no clear correlation between online sales and shrinkage. The inconsistency in shrink trends for these stores is likely due to: Smaller online sales volumes, which make it harder to measure impact. Store staff picking orders alongside their regular checkout duties, reducing the benefits of additional oversight. A newer and less optimized online fulfilment process. 2. The Role of Process and Training A key theme was the influence of operational processes on shrink outcomes. While increased online sales can lead to greater stock control, inefficient or rushed picking processes can counteract these benefits. Stores that prioritised speed over accuracy in online order fulfillment saw higher rates of missing items and theft risks. Specific issues include: Employees bypassing standard procedures to meet fulfillment speed targets. High-value items being misplaced or stolen due to lax oversight. Delivery-related shrinkage from failed transactions, fraudulent claims, or theft in transit. 3. Impact of Inventory Management Online grocery operations generally require higher stock levels to meet customer demand, which can have mixed effects: Positive Impact: More frequent stock checks and better rotation reduce spoilage and stockouts. Negative Impact: Excess stock, particularly in perishable categories, can lead to increased shrinkage if demand is overestimated. Interestingly, in stores where total sales decreased after introducing online fulfillment, shrinkage worsened. This suggests that a successful online model must drive incremental sales rather than merely shifting in-store purchases to digital channels. 4. Variability in Third-Party Delivery Performance Retailers utilising third-party delivery services saw inconsistent results. While some stores with high third-party order volumes exhibited increased shrinkage, the majority showed no significant impact. A few high-risk urban stores, such as those near universities, experienced sharp rises in shrinkage due to both high online demand and existing theft risks. 5. Fraud and Customer Behaviour Challenges Shrinkage related to online grocery operations is not limited to operational inefficiencies. Fraud, particularly through chargebacks and false missing item claims, emerged as a significant concern. Some customers exploit refund policies, while weak transaction verification processes enable theft by both employees and external parties. Conclusion The impact of online grocery on shrink performance depends on store format, fulfillment model, and operational discipline. Large-format stores with structured first-party fulfillment benefit the most, while convenience stores and third-party models exhibit more variability. Effective shrink management in online grocery requires: Strong process control and training to balance speed and accuracy. Inventory optimisation to prevent overstocking and spoilage. Robust fraud detection and loss prevention mechanisms. While online grocery expansion presents operational challenges, a well-managed system can significantly reduce shrinkage in certain store formats.

You’re catching just 2% of internal theft. What about the rest?

If retailers think they've got a handle on internal theft, maybe it is time to think again, for despite all the different tools at their disposal, from Exception Based POS data analytics to whistleblowing hotlines, they're probably detecting just 2% of what’s really going on inside their business. And yes, staff dishonesty and internal theft is and has always been awkward to talk about. No one wants to point the finger at their own people, especially when retention is fragile and recruitment is a daily grind. However, internal theft comes at a huge cost, and ignoring it can hurt culture more than it helps. From fraudulently voiding a sale, to taking merchandise, to manipulating returns, to “sweet hearting” for their friends, when honest staff see others breaking the rules and getting away with it, it will impact on their motivation and job satisfaction. And while pre-employment screening has a clear role to play, the high levels of staff turnover, and the requirement to hire at speed, are hard to execute for retailers. But you can influence behaviour. So we brought in Marketing MSc students from Loughborough Business School and asked them to do what marketers do best: change minds and influence behaviour. Their brief was to use proven behavioural science to speak to the would-be thief, the tempted, the borderline, the young new hires to those celebrating thirty years of long service. Not with blanket suspicion or clumsy threats. But with smart, brand-aligned messaging that taps into pride, loyalty, family and social pressure. Their campaigns created posters with purpose, clearly communicating: “We see you. We trust you. Don’t break that trust.” The evidence is gathering, in the report, one retailer trialled communications along these lines and saw their tobacco losses fall by 78%. Another cut prepared food loss by a third. And yet another saw their losses decrease by 15% with a campaign that drove awareness of their new central CCTV monitoring capabilities. Therein lies the power of low-cost, well-designed internal messaging. So, if you’ve previously written off staff posters and internal comms as just background noise, our report suggests that it’s time to think again. Done properly, they don’t just inform, they can engage staff and shift culture. Because internal theft today isn’t about taking home a sandwich. It’s iPhones in the post. It’s refund fraud. It’s manipulation of fulfilment models like BOPIS and BORIS. And in some cases, it’s organised crime networks exploiting seasonal bulk hiring peaks. And while retailers will continue to invest to catch more than 2%, specially AI and CV, our report, click here, authored by Professor Emmeline Taylor, presents the case for sending a well considered and targeted message to the other 98% that could have the potential to reduce your annual shrink bill by 10%. And as a next step, and along the lines of what we did with this project, maybe retailers can ask their marketing teams and agencies for some inspiration and help?

Seven New Ways Retailers Are Thinking About Their Security Guarding Provision

Our working group regularly meet to discuss the provision of security guarding in retail. In our most recent meeting, with thirty five retailers attending, we focused on the new initiatives retailers are working on to improve their security guard/officer capabilities in their business operations. Note, while these initiatives were "new" to the retailers who shared them, we recognise that for other retailers these may be practices that they might have already deployed. So, with that said, here were the seven broad themes and trends. #1: Retailers are investing behind upskilled & specialised security roles The Retail Security Specialist: With enhanced training, these upskilled guards support a broader brief, including both loss prevention and safety, the will also handle CCTV, compile evidence, and engage with local police and community. Elite Officers. These are mobile, proactive officers helping stores improve self-sufficiency in crime management. Tactical Guards: Visibly deterrent guards with advanced training but no weapons, used in high-risk areas or known locations with regular prolific offender problems. #2) Deeper and Greater Intelligence & Technology Integration Intelligence Operations Centres: Triaging tech alerts, radioing store security, verifying incidents, and optimizing responses. Two-Way Audio Links: Live communication between security officers and a remote command centre for guidance and support. Service Channel Automation: Automated vendor selection for temporary guard deployment based on cost and availability. #3) The adoption of mew Risk & Resource Optimisation Models Security Index / Risk Modelling: The use of data-driven allocation of guarding resources based on incidents, costs, and other risk factors. ROI-Justified Coverage: The adoption of metrics like recovery value and repeat offender prevention to justify investment. KPI-Driven Guarding: Monthly service reviews with measurable metrics like uniform standards, communication, incident response. #4) The adoption of Hybrid Guarding Models Store Employee-Guards: Employees trained to perform both regular retail duties and guarding depending on demand. Ad Hoc & Mobile Guarding: Temporary guards, mobile patrols, and floating staff assigned based on incidents or investigations. #5) Greater Community & Law Enforcement Engagement Youth-Focused Guard Training: Specialised training for guards to interact constructively with young people, including connections to social services. Police Partnership Alignment: Aligning store security operations with local police jurisdictions for more efficient responses. #6) Improved Monitoring & Reporting Enhancements Live POS & Self-Checkout Monitoring: Real-time transaction monitoring by guards using hand-held devices, especially for self-checkout fraud. Microsoft Forms-Based Incident Reporting: The use of lightweight, in-house developed tools for quick incident capture and KPI tracking. #7) More Remote & Automated Guarding Remote Surveillance Units: Mobile units for parking lot and out-of-hours monitoring with talk-down capability. Drone Surveillance: Exploring drone tech for distribution centre security. With the increasingly more difficult external context for retail, with more abuse, theft and violence being faced by store associates, budgets for guarding continues to grow, creating a sense of urgency for new ways to improve the provision and help the budget deliver a better return on investment. If you would like to be part of our 2026 discussion, please consider joining our retailer, CPG and academic only working group. Click here.

RFID: Twenty Five Retailer Case Studies - What can we learn?

Our RFID working group have been researching, and promoting collaboration on the use of RFID for over twenty years. The research we have published can be accessed for free by clicking here. With the help of AI, we recently undertook some meta analysis of twenty five retailers, all of who have deployed RFID store wide. The list includes Walmart, Decathlon, M&S, Inditex and others. We asked three questions for each of the twenty five, firstly, how did their RFID programme link to and support their corporate priorities, secondly, we asked how they executed RFID in their business, and finally, we asked about some facts about their programme that would help other retailers articulate a "size of the prize" for their business. Here are the results. # 1) RFID linkage to corporate objectives * Omnichannel promise: “Buy anywhere, fulfill anywhere” (BOPIS, ship-from-store, endless aisle) hinged on trusted, item-level availability (e.g., Macy’s, Nordstrom, Carter’s, Inditex). These retailers framed RFID as a customer-experience and revenue-growth objective, not just ops tech. * Full-price sell-through & margin: Better on-shelf availability and precise last-unit selling reduced markdowns (Inditex, M&S, Nike) * Operating model efficiency: Faster counts, automated replenishment, and staff time shifted from stock to service (Stadium, Superdry, Lululemon) * Risk & brand control: Loss prevention and authenticity/counterfeit defence in luxury/eyewear (Burberry, Prada, Luxottica) * Sustainability/circularity: Less overproduction and support for resale/repair models (H&M, Decathlon, Adidas, Mulberry) # 2) Most common RFID execution patterns * Source tagging (EPC/RFID) at manufacture to ensure cradle-to-store traceability. * Weekly/daily cycle counts with handhelds; fixed portals/tunnels at DC inbounds/outbounds. * Cloud inventory platforms integrated with ERP/OMS (e.g., Nedap iD Cloud, SML Clarity, TrueVUE) to create a single, near-real-time stock view. * Customer-facing layers where relevant: self-checkout (Decathlon, River Island), fitting-room recognition/content (H&M, Mango), experiential storytelling (Burberry, Deckers) # 3) “Hard fact” outcomes other retailers can expect * Inventory accuracy: From ~60–75% to 95–99% (River Island, Lululemon, Carter’s, C&A, M&S) * Count speed/productivity: 5–10× faster; e.g., \~30k items in \~2 hours; staff time cut \~40% in some programs. * Sales/availability: Sales lift ~5–8% tied to availability; last-unit selling unlocked (Macy’s, H&M) * Omnichannel reliability: Fewer cancellations, faster pickup/ship-from-store SLAs (Nordstrom, Target, Carter’s) * Loss/authenticity: Item-level theft insights; counterfeit deterrence in luxury/eyewear. The limitation of this analysis is that it can only draw on what is available on the internet for Chat GPT to "crunch" and effectively, what has happened or is happening already. That said, the conclusions do chime with the knowledge we have acquired in the working group on how to stand up and deliver an RFID programme in retail. It is striking that the scope of the RFID programmes for the majority of the retailers in this sample remains in the store itself, rather than the Distribution or Fulfilment Centres, or perhaps with the shopper. Perhaps then, this is where the future growth of RFID lies. If you would like to see the original research and the 300 words Chat GPT generated for each of the 25 retailers, please email me at colin@ecrloss.com. If you are a retailer, brand owner or academic and would like to join the working group, please click here. and register for one of our next meetings, online or in person.

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ECR Retail Loss is a global collaboration between retailers, suppliers and academics, working together to better understand and manage the causes of retail loss..

Our community includes 400+ of the biggest global retailers (our current Board members are from Aholddelhaize, Nike, Next, and Tesco) alongside consumer goods manufacturers, academics and researchers. Together, we explore practical ways to reduce shrink, fraud, food waste and other preventable losses across all channels.

Through regular working group meetings, peer-led research, benchmarks and reports, we support loss prevention professionals, asset protection, store teams, and retail leaders in making smarter decisions to reduce shrink, protect assets, and meet rising expectations from customers and stakeholders.

Real world insights influence everything we do to support your teams, stores and operations. From preventing theft to improving inventory accuracy.

Our eight priority areas are set by our members.

Video in Retail: the evolving role of surveillance, AI and analytics in deterring crime
Food Waste and markdowns: reducing preventable waste and aligning shrink reduction with sustainability goals
E-commerce Loss: tackling fraud, returns abuse and delivery risk in online retail
Inventory Accuracy: why better stock data reduces shrink, improves margins and builds trust
On-Shelf Availability: ensuring products are where they should be, when customers want them
Self Checkout: balancing customer experience with effective loss prevention at SCO
RFID in Retail: using real-time data to track goods, reduce shrink, and improve replenishment
Retail Loss, Safety and Security: protecting people, products and profits in an age of rising threats

We help you sell more and lose less by tackling every major form of retail loss:

Shoplifting, employee theft, internal fraud, external threats
Returns abuse, self-checkout manipulation, operational errors
POS system mistakes, stock inaccuracies, spoilage and waste
Supplier fraud, delivery discrepancies, vandalism, and more

We share actionable strategies to prevent loss, strengthen store safety, and improve visibility across all retail operations. That includes smarter loss prevention protocols, upgraded security cameras, AI, facial recognition and POS systems, real-time RFID tracking, enhanced EAS tagging, updated policies and processes and practical training programmes.

And thanks to the funding from our research grant providers, all of our research, insights and meetings are offered to the retail industry for free.