Series 3 Episode 6
Tackling Forecourt Crime - ANPR versus ghost plates, and the limits of pay at pump
Forecourt crime remains a persistent challenge for retailers, with drive-offs and no means of payment costing businesses across the globe.
Colin Peacock and Professor Emmeline Taylor discuss the latest insights from our retail loss safety and security working group meetings on what is and isn't working.
They explore why pay at pump is not the answer on its own, how ANPR combined with better signage and reporting has driven significant reductions for one retailer, and why the rise of ghost plates threatens to undermine number plate recognition as a solution. Plus the case for stronger law enforcement partnerships and government action.
Podcast summary
Forecourt crime costs retailers significant sums every year, yet the gap between the best and worst performers suggests many businesses are yet to invest in the right combination of technology and process. In this episode of the Sell More and Lose Less podcast, Colin Peacock and Professor Emmeline Taylor discuss the latest insights from ECR Retail Loss working group meetings on tackling drive-offs and no means of payment at fuel forecourts.
They explore why pay at pump, despite its appeal as a target-hardening measure, is not a silver bullet: for many retailers, the real margin sits in the shop linked to the forecourt, not on the fuel itself. The conversation covers how one retailer combined ANPR with good signage and streamlined reporting to achieve a significant reduction in losses, and why the growing problem of ghost and cloned number plates is threatening to undermine that technology.
With a recent report suggesting one in 15 vehicles in England and Wales is now using false plates, Emmeline argues that government action is needed before the practice becomes normalised. They also discuss the governance risks for lone-working staff, the value of law enforcement collaboration, and the potential for video analytics to detect mismatches between plates and vehicle descriptions.
Tackling forecourt crime: what retailers are learning
Pay at pump is not the silver bullet
COLIN:
Hello and welcome to the ECR Retail Loss Sell More and Lose Less podcast series. My name is Colin Peacock. I’ve worked in the retail and FMCG business for more than 40 years, working on the dark side of retail, on retail loss at every point in the supply chain.
I’m with Professor Emmeline Taylor, who has been with this topic over the years as well. Perhaps start with pay at pump, but talk us through some of the learnings we’re picking up from retailers over the last 12 months and what’s hot in this space.
EMMELINE:
Pay at pump. Let’s continue with that for a moment, because with my criminology hat on, presented with this problem, one might reach the conclusion that pay at pump is the solution to no means of payment or drive-offs. It’s about target hardening. The principle through crime prevention through environmental design would suggest that if you limit access, you reduce the potential for that crime to take place. There’s a clear methodology there. It’s understandable why it keeps being suggested, but it’s certainly not the silver bullet.
The issue is that for many of these businesses, the conversion happens in the shop linked to the forecourt. That’s where the margin really sits, not on the petrol itself. Pay at pump, absolutely, we need to retain it as part of the ecosystem. It’s desired by many customers. I’m thinking of myself: you’ve got a young child in the car, you don’t want to leave them on their own, you don’t want the faff of getting them out and putting them back in. People with mobility issues. There’s a real demand for it. But we need to move beyond it as the answer for no means of payment and drive-offs.
ANPR and a blended approach
In the call, we had some quite interesting case studies where there is progress in reducing the number of individuals deliberately filling up to steal petrol. We heard from one retailer that had used a blend of different approaches. It included sophisticated technology: ANPR, automatic number plate recognition, for repeat offenders, flagging when those individuals drove onto the forecourt, with the view that over time they would no longer even attempt it because the pump’s been locked and off they go. They’re either going to go elsewhere or maybe even decide to pay for their petrol.
But ANPR wasn’t going to work on its own. There had to be peripheral things around it. Really good signage. They talked about streamlining their reporting systems, ensuring those databases were up to date. That had driven quite a significant reduction in the problem they were experiencing.
Two things then flowed from that as potential issues. One was around governance for the employee who was potentially lone working. Was that placing them in any form of vulnerability? Could it be a flashpoint for aggression or even violence? That governance piece is really key.
The other, of course, is the real issue with ghost plates. A recent report suggested one in 15 vehicles across England and Wales is now driving on false number plates, which begins to unravel ANPR as a solution. This is a really interesting conversation. I don’t know that we quite came up with all of the solutions, but we certainly moved towards some.
Law enforcement partnerships and data sharing
COLIN:
I think we owe a debt of gratitude to one of the participants from law enforcement who had championed the need and opportunity for retailers to have access to the licence plate database for the UK, so that retailers could look up and see who it actually was.
You’d think there’d be something around flagging a licence plate that couldn’t be recognised by the ANPR technology. That would be a really interesting space.
The other interesting area: clone plates. A car associated with a silver colour turns up as a red car with the same plate. You wonder whether video analytics could play a role to throw those up in future.
EMMELINE:
Wasn’t it great to have that representation from law enforcement? We had some senior people there, all ears, wanting to hear the issues and take away some of those problems to think about how they could drive better partnership.
We’ve already had some wins in that space around sharing information and intelligence. This is of real importance to the police as well, because some of those individuals passing through forecourts and flagging as repeat offenders are also organised criminals. Having that evidence base around their movements and whereabouts, potentially linking them to other crimes, is really important information to have.
Connecting data across systems
COLIN:
To your point, the thought about joining all this data up and connecting it to other databases like the stolen vehicle database potentially throws up further opportunities for crime prevention. We heard from some people talking about the idea that if someone steals a car, perhaps there’s a network here that means they’ll never be able to fill up with petrol without being detected or even prevented.
The technology does hold out a significant level of promise. What is really interesting though is that in terms of adoption of this technology and these practices, there’s such a wide difference.
Disparity in losses and the ROI case
EMMELINE:
It’s always the way, though, isn’t it? Particularly to begin with. You have some huge proponents of a particular technology. Others have already exhausted their budgets or have legacy systems they’re still honouring. It always takes a few years to level up. But we’re certainly seeing a lot of investment in this technology because the ROI appears to be quite compelling.
COLIN:
About six or seven years ago we had Z Energy from New Zealand reporting how they were using ANPR, linking it with Auror. Really helping law enforcement as well. They’ve only got one police force in New Zealand, which also helps.
EMMELINE:
I think there are 43 across England and Wales, about 50,000 in the USA. That’s quite hard to manage across those jurisdictional boundaries.
Ghost plates: a growing threat
EMMELINE:
Thinking about national and government level, I don’t want to labour the point too much, but these cloned number plates, these ghost number plates, are set to only cause more problems. We’re seeing the introduction of more congestion charges operated by ANPR. I worry we’re going to see a casualisation of having cloned or doctored plates so that your everyday person can avoid paying toll charges or parking fees.
Without the right regulation and clampdown in the early days, the horse is going to have bolted. In terms of government, across multiple countries not just the UK, I think we really need to crack down on this before it becomes normalised.
COLIN:
In North America, I think 36 out of the 50-odd states still mandate a front plate. So there are still opportunities for front plate recognition there. But you’d think ANPR systems are clever enough to create an alert when they can’t read a plate.
EMMELINE:
I’m sure the technology is there.
Outro
COLIN:
Interesting stuff. We’ll be back on this topic in another 12 months and see what progress has been made. Thank you so much for taking the time to share your notes and thoughts around where we’re at on forecourt loss prevention. See you soon.
EMMELINE:
Thanks, Colin. See you soon.
COLIN:
Well, that’s all we have time for this week. Thank you for joining us and thanks to all the ECR Retail Loss community for the sharing of their knowledge, their research, and latest learnings that ensure that we become truly a global platform for learning.
My name is Colin Peacock. This is the Sell More and Lose Less podcast. If you liked it, please subscribe so you automatically get all future episodes. And if you think your colleagues and friends might also like it, please ask them to follow ECR Retail Loss on LinkedIn and tune in to our next podcasts. If you didn’t like it, then let us know and we’ll try and fix it. Either way, see you next time. Thank you again.
